A Functional Covid Recovery: Applying Functional Data Analysis to the Post-Covid Economic Recovery

Abstract

The economic recovery after the response to the Covid-19 pandemic varies considerably across counties. Using data from Opportunity Insights, we employ functional data techniques to model the recovery of employment, consumer spending, and small businesses among counties as a function of time. We regress the functional recovery data on pre-2020 American Community Survey data to estimate how county demographics and industry distribution affected the course of the recovery. We also use cluster analysis on the functional recovery data to find different recovery patterns across counties.